Is The Latest Climate Report Too Much Of A Downer?
Originally published on Tue April 1, 2014 10:08 am
Reading through the latest report from the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it's hard not to feel despondent about the state of the world.
The report's colorful charts and tables tell of droughts and fires; depleted fisheries and strained cropland; a world in which heat-related disease is on the rise and freshwater is growing scarce.
"It's risk, risk, risk, risk, risk," says Richard Tol, a climate economist at the University of Sussex. "Climate change is dangerous, and we're all going to die, and we're all going to starve."
Tol is a coordinating lead author on one chapter about the economic impacts of climate change, but he doesn't believe climate change will be as destructive as the report might lead some to believe. He took his name off the dire final summary because he felt it didn't accurately account for human ingenuity.
Take crop yields, for example. The report says climate change will cause them to fall by a few percent per decade. But Tol says technological innovation will likely raise crop yields by 10 percent or more each decade.
"So it's not that crop yields are going to fall, but they're going to rise more slowly because of climate change," he says. "And then of course it doesn't sound as alarming."
Tol adds, "Sea-level rise may be quite dramatic, if it weren't for the fact that somebody in China invented the dike 3,000 years ago." The Netherlands has been able to hold off the sea for more than a century, and others could do the same with proven technology.
Now to be clear: Tol still believes in climate change, and he still thinks it's a serious problem. In fact, that's why he's speaking out — he thinks this report will split believers and deniers at just the time there needs to be a consensus on how to keep the world from getting even warmer.
"I think there is a real risk of this draft further polarizing the climate debate," he says. And if people don't work together to lower carbon emissions, he says, things will get even worse in the long term.
The report's other authors say its gloomy tone is entirely justified. "Richard's a great guy; I love him. But he's not in the center of the scientific community," says Chris Field, who co-chaired the full report. He says Tol is one of more than 300 lead authors.
Field thinks the report appropriately warns of some difficult times ahead. The world's poorest will be especially vulnerable, he says.
But Field acknowledges that predicting exactly what will happen is difficult, because people aren't like melting glaciers. They don't just sit there; they adapt.
"People have a tendency of changing what they do when they realize they have a problem; that's the core essence of adaptation," he says.
The new report does say adaptation could make climate change much less damaging to society. For instance, most projections point to a rise in global temperature of at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. But Field thinks improved transportation infrastructure, better disaster response and health care could all help lessen the rise's impact.
And adapting won't necessarily cost a lot, adds Saleemul Huq, director of the International Center for Climate Change and Development based in Bangladesh.
Preparing for extreme weather like floods and cyclones doesn't always mean building huge barriers against the ocean. "In most cases, it's just societal preparedness," Huq says. "It's people having shelters to go to."
"The rich don't have any particular advantage here. It's not technology that makes a difference," Huq adds.
Tol, Huq and Field all agree: Climate change is happening. Humans aren't helpless; they can adapt. But society will also need to make changes to avoid further warming.
Otherwise, things will get even more depressing.
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An international panel of scientists is predicting a long list of dire consequences of climate change over the next century - spreading disease, coastal floods, suffering crops. And they say it's too late to stop at least some warming. This is the consensus of hundreds of scientists. But one of them refused to put his name on the final summary. He felt it was too much doom and gloom, and he said it failed to account for human innovation. NPR's Geoff Brumfiel reports on the disagreement over the report's message.
GEOFF BRUMFIEL, BYLINE: The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a grim accounting of our future on a warmer planet. Heat-related diseases are likely to rise. Crops will be harder to grow. Disputes over dwindling resources, like fresh water, might even lead to war. To climate economist Richard Tol, the report sounds pretty depressing.
RICHARD TOL: It's risk, risk, risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. And climate change is dangerous and we're all going to die and we're all going to starve.
BRUMFIEL: Tol is at the University of Sussex in the U.K. and helped to write the new report. He co-authored a chapter on the economic impact. But he took his name off the final summary of the report because he felt it didn't accurately account for human ingenuity. Take, for example, crop yields. The report says climate change will cause them to fall by a few percent per decade. But, Tol says, technological innovation will likely raise crop yields by 10 percent or more.
TOL: So it's not that crop yields are going to fall, but they're going to rise more slowly because of climate change. And then, of course, it doesn't sound as alarming.
BRUMFIEL: Now to be clear, Tol still believes in climate change and he still thinks it's a really serious problem. In fact, that's why he's speaking out. He thinks this report will work people up. Just when there needs to be a consensus on how to keep the world from getting even warmer, this report will move believers and deniers further apart.
TOL: I think there is a real risk of this draft further polarizing the climate debate rather than calming things down and moving us forward.
CHRIS FIELD: Richard's a great guy. I love him. But he's not in the center of the scientific community.
BRUMFIEL: That's Chris Field, who co-chaired the entire report. He says Tol is just one of over 300 lead authors.
FIELD: I don't ask them to all agree. What I ask them is to work together in a way that tells the world community what the position of the scientific community on this issue is.
BRUMFIEL: Field thinks the report appropriately cautions about some very real risks. But he does acknowledge that predicting exactly what will happen is difficult because people aren't like melting glaciers. They don't just sit there, they adapt.
FIELD: People have a tendency of changing what they do when they realize they have a problem. That's the core essence of adaptation.
BRUMFIEL: A big part of this new report is encouraging people to respond. It's clear that the temperature will rise by at least four degrees Fahrenheit this century. Field thinks improved transportation infrastructure, better disaster response and healthcare could all help lessen the impact. But he also thinks too much faith in technology is itself risky.
FIELD: One of the things that can create vulnerability is actually hubris, thinking that you're protected or that you're too rich or you're too smart to need protection.
BRUMFIEL: In the end, these two researchers are arguing about wording, not facts. Both agree that climate change is happening, that humans aren't helpless, that we can adapt, and that unless we make changes to avoid even more warming, things will get a lot worse. Geoff Brumfiel, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.